Artificial intelligence as a strategy for efficiency and sustainability in the management of temporary disability in Spain

Abstract

Temporary Disability (TD) has emerged as the main financial and management challenge for the sustainability of the Spanish Social Security system. With annual spending exceeding €14 billion in 2023¹ and projected to surpass €16.5 billion in 2024, this expenditure already represents nearly 1% of Spain’s Gross Domestic Product² (GDP).

Traditional responses have proven insufficient, and the risk of unsustainability is imminent.

This proposal presents Artificial Intelligence (AI) as the essential technological and strategic solution to reverse this trend. AI will enable the National Social Security Institute to transform its management of TD, shifting from a predominantly reactive model to one that is predictive, proactive, and highly efficient. Specifically, AI could:

Identify and proactively manage high-risk long-term sick leaves, significantly reducing unnecessary durations.

Optimize the allocation of control resources, focusing them where they are truly needed and avoiding bureaucratization.

Support decision-making with accurate data, ensuring fairness and effectiveness.

Contribute to the detection of misuse patterns or fraud.

A potential savings of between 5% and 15% of annual TD expenditure is estimated, equivalent to between €700 million and €2.5 billion per year.

Investment in AI should be understood as a high-return strategy aimed at ensuring system sustainability, improving public management efficiency, and promoting worker well-being and reintegration.